Ukraine and EU Trade Talks: Potential Impacts
21 April 2025 16:07
The Ukrainian government is in discussions with the European Commission regarding the extension or update of trade preferences with the EU. If no agreement is reached by June 5, Ukraine may revert to the pre-2022 trade regime, risking a $1.5 billion drop in exports.
Source: "European Truth".
It is noted that in the absence of a new decision, the provisions of the Association Agreement will automatically resume, posing a risk of significant reductions in Ukrainian exports to the EU.
Experts estimate that the losses for the Ukrainian economy could amount to $1.5 billion, nearly 4% of total exports, according to a study by Veronika Movchan and Ricardo Jucci.
The European Commission firmly supports the preservation and enhancement of the trade regime.
Specifically, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen assured Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal during their talks on April 9 that the new trade parameters will be better than those that existed before 2022.
It is planned to achieve this through a revision of the current free trade regime in accordance with Article 29 of the Association Agreement.
The Ukrainian side emphasizes that the format of the future agreement is not crucial. The main goal is to maintain and strengthen access for Ukrainian goods to the European market.
"We do not particularly care under what guise the future trade regime between Ukraine and the EU will be defined. The principle is the result, not the packaging," the government stated.
Reminder:
- On May 13, 2024, the EU Council approved the extension of preferential trade with Ukraine for another year – until June 5, 2025.
- Preliminary agreements were established regarding the future format of trade relations between Ukraine and the EU, particularly that the conditions for duty-free trade will be integrated into the Association Agreement.
- In February 2025, First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko stated that Ukraine's primary task in 2025 is to complete consultations on trade liberalization with the EU.