Forecast of Utility Tariff Changes in Ukraine

The National Bank of Ukraine anticipates an increase in utility tariffs in the coming years, particularly starting in 2026.

This is stated in the inflation report for April.

It is expected that current tariffs for gas, heating, and hot water will remain unchanged this year.

"However, the challenging state of the energy sector and the need for fiscal consolidation are likely to lead to gradual adjustments of these tariffs in the upcoming years. Specifically, the beginning of a gradual alignment to economically justified levels is expected from 2026", the report mentions.

Postponing these increases may result in lower inflation, but it will deteriorate the financial condition of state energy companies.

"At the same time, risks of instability in the energy market will rise, the investment potential of the industry will worsen, and price pressure will only be deferred to the future", the NBU added.

A rapid and significant increase in energy prices to address imbalances in the energy sector could intensify inflationary pressures and necessitate an increase in subsidies for the population, the bankers believe.

As a reminder:

"Naftogaz of Ukraine" has extended the "Fixed Tariff" for gas supply to the population until April 2026.

Additionally, starting from May 31, a price for electricity has been set at 4.32 UAH/kWh for all residents of Ukraine, regardless of consumption volume.